MN MethaNorConceptual Offshore e-Methanol Digital Twin
CONCEPTUAL ENGINEERING · DATA · FINANCE

Design the offshore molecule, not just the platform.

MethaNor evolves a 2026 Marine Engineering thesis into an auditable screening model: offshore wind → hydrogen → captured CO₂ → e-methanol → construction → operations → project finance.

Scientific correction Energy conservation reconciled Traceability Every major input is source-tagged Scope Concept / pre-FEED screening
LIVE MODELRecomputed locally
150 MW hub
PEM electrolysis
e-MeOH
Annual e-MeOHt/y
Capacity factor%
NPV @ WACCM€
Why this version exists. The thesis reported 51,058 t/y for the original 15 MW concept. MethaNor performs an explicit energy-conservation audit: a single 15 MW energy source cannot support that output under the stated process intensities. The software therefore separates the 15 MW engineering unit from the 150 MW commercial hub.
See correction ↘
EXECUTIVE DECISION SNAPSHOT

What the model says — and what still needs evidence.

Physics15 MW unit ≠ 51 kt/yEnergy conservation is enforced; commercial output is scaled with a multi-unit hub.
SiteScreening, not permittingWind, depth and metocean can be explored; official GIS/AIS layers remain a decision gate.
TechnologyPublic data, no fabricated vendor quotationsVendor candidates are source-linked and can be compared before any supported value enters the scenario.
EconomicsScenario-dependentNPV, LCOeM, IRR, payback and break-even conditions recompute from visible assumptions.
01 · SITE INTELLIGENCE

Screen the Cantabrian Sea before sizing steel.

Site screening combines wind, bathymetry, metocean severity, port logistics and spatial-planning readiness. Only the thesis point is an academic baseline; comparison candidates are explicitly illustrative until GIS-refresh.

BAY OF BISCAY · SCREENING VIEW

Candidate site explorer

S04 · S05 · S06 · S07
z7
43.59° N · 3.85° W
Imagery: Esri · engineering layers: not derived from imagery
Academic baseline Illustrative scenario engineering data separate from basemap⚠ Basemap ≠ permitting evidence
SELECTED LOCATION

Cantabria Reference

/100
Academic baselinePRELIMINARY SCREENING SCORE
Coordinates
Water depth
Mean wind
Hs,50
Nearest port
Port distance
POEM status
How is the screening score calculated?

Weighted comparison only: wind 35%, bathymetry 20%, metocean 15%, port logistics 15%, spatial-planning readiness 15%. It is a prioritisation device, not an engineering acceptance criterion.

Wind resource35%
Bathymetry20%
Metocean15%
Port logistics15%
Spatial planning15%
02 · ENERGY & P2X

One balance, from wind to molecule.

The screening engine integrates a transparent IEA 15 MW reference-turbine curve against a Weibull distribution, then closes H₂/CO₂/e-methanol material and energy balances. Equations ↘

Wind energyGWh/yDerived result
H₂ requirementt/yStoichiometric
CO₂ capturedt/yStoichiometric
e-Methanolt/yEnergy-limited
MASS & ENERGY FLOW

Process train

S01 · S02 · S03 · S09
01Windelectricity
02PEMH₂ generation
03H₂ buffer24–48 h concept
+
04DACCO₂ feed
05MeOHproduct
CONSERVATION AUDIT

15 MW energy-consistency check

PHYSICS BOUND

A 15 MW source has an absolute annual electricity ceiling of 131.4 GWh. Hydrogen stoichiometry alone therefore imposes a hard upper bound on methanol production; adding DAC, synthesis, water and balance-of-plant lowers it further.

Thesis reported51,058 t/y
H₂-only ceiling
Modelled 15 MW
Design consequence. MethaNor keeps the 15 MW semisubmersible as the naval unit and sizes commercial production with multiple units. This removes the hidden energy inconsistency without discarding the original concept.
03 · TECHNOLOGY & VENDOR EXPLORER

Shortlist real technologies without inventing vendor quotations.

Compare public manufacturer data for electrolysis, methanol synthesis, DAC and water treatment. The ranking is a transparent portfolio-fit score, not a universal “best vendor” list. Use a candidate to update only the scenario inputs that are actually supported.

How is Portfolio Fit calculated?

The same weights are applied to every candidate. This is a concept-fit score, not a procurement recommendation, bankability rating or vendor guarantee.

RANKED SHORTLIST

Electrolysis candidates

A / B / C TECHNOLOGY COMPARISON

Compare public specifications side by side

Use the A/B/C buttons in a candidate detail card. Empty or unpublished fields stay visibly blank — MethaNor does not infer vendor data.

COST DISCIPLINE

Vendor price ≠ literature benchmark

Public industrial-equipment prices are usually not published. MethaNor therefore shows “vendor quote required” and keeps category-level literature/target cost context separate from any named manufacturer.

04 · FLOATING PLATFORM

Preserve the naval concept. Expose every assumption.

The geometry remains conceptual. Hydrostatic values inherited from the thesis are labelled as academic baselines; component placement below is a portfolio-level arrangement, not class-approved general arrangement.

15 MW SEMISUBMERSIBLE UNIT

Engineering concept model

PEMDACSYNTHESISMeOH 150 m hub height [S01/S10]24.5 m air gap [S10]22 m draft [S10]
PEMDACSynthesisProduct storage⚓ Catenary mooring concept
Turbine / central clearance PEM + power electronicsMeOH synthesisDACStorage Concept deck envelope — not to scale
Four-column semisubmersibleCentral turbine clearanceSeparated hazardous/process zones conceptually
Displacement24,000 tAcademic baseline · S10
Operating draft22.0 mAcademic baseline · S10
Air gap24.5 mAcademic baseline · S10
GMeff3.13 mAcademic hydrostatic result · S10
Hub height150 mReference turbine · S01
Hs,5011.0 mAcademic baseline · refresh via S07
CONCEPT LEVEL

What MethaNor does not pretend to be

No RAO/CFD, global finite-element model, fatigue assessment, class approval, detailed scantlings, mooring dynamics or hazardous-area design. Those are explicit gates before FEED/classification.

04B · MASS & SPACE BUDGET

Keep every equipment choice connected to naval reality.

The baseline below is reconstructed from the thesis mass and vertical-moment register. It is an academic weight model, not a class-approved lightweight/deadweight estimate. Any vendor selection can change mass, footprint and VCG.

ACADEMIC WEIGHT REGISTER · S10

24,000 t displacement reconciliation

ACADEMIC
Registered masst
Vertical momentt·m
Derived KGm
Mass closuret
TOPSIDE FOOTPRINT

Known academic envelopes

S10
Plant 0 reference deck
Plant 1 reference deck

05 · BUILD & OPERATIONS

Translate technology into a project people can actually build and run.

Work breakdown, staffing and campaign assumptions are author-defined portfolio inputs. They are deliberately separated from sourced engineering data and are editable in future releases.

REFERENCE EXECUTION PLAN

60-month path to COD

AUTHOR ASSUMPTION
Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5
OPERATING CONCEPT

Remote-first + campaign maintenance

SCREENING
Indicative loaded employer costM€/y

Salary assumptions are portfolio inputs, not market quotations. Marine logistics, spares and contractor O&M sit outside this staffing subtotal.

CAPITAL PHASING

Conceptual gross-CAPEX S-curve

Scenario assumption
PROJECT TEAM

Indicative staffing by phase

Author model
O&M CYCLE

How an operating year is structured

Screening concept
01Remote monitoringcontinuous
02Condition reviewweekly / monthly
03Planned campaign2 windows/y
04Corrective responseas required
94% baseline availability planned campaigns/yRemote normal operating mode
06 · CONCEPT RISK REGISTER

Expose what can break the concept before it becomes expensive.

This is a concept-level risk register — not a HAZOP. Probability and impact are screening judgments used to prioritize the next engineering work package.

5 × 5 SCREENING MATRIX

Probability × impact

Probability →Impact ↑
RISK REGISTER

Highest priorities first

07 · SCENARIO LAB

Make every investment conclusion depend on visible assumptions.

Change physical and financial drivers. Every KPI recomputes in-browser using the same equation set mirrored in the Python reference engine. Values are screening outputs, not bankable estimates.

Annual e-MeOHt/y
LCOeM€/t
NPV @ WACCM€
Project IRR%
Simple paybackyears
Year-1 marginM€/y
DISCOUNTED VALUE CONTEXT

25-year cumulative project cashflow

The cashflow view is COD-normalized for screening: net CAPEX is placed at year 0; annual production degrades by 0.5%; terminal decommissioning is 3% of gross CAPEX.

Break-even MeOH priceNPV = 0 at current assumptions
Maximum gross CAPEXNPV = 0
Minimum CAPEX grantNPV = 0
Minimum mean windNPV = 0
Maximum WACCNPV = 0
COST STRUCTURE

Levelized methanol cost

SENSITIVITY

What moves NPV most?

GROSS CAPEX

Portfolio cost allocation

S08 + assumptions
ANNUAL OPEX

Operating cost allocation

S08 + assumptions
SCENARIO COMPARISON

Freeze A / B / C and compare decisions

08 · METHODOLOGY

Equations in the interface, not hidden in a PDF.

Every block below states what is calculated, the equation used, the evidence class and the assumptions that still need upgrading before engineering use.

Wind climatePower curveEnergyH₂ + CO₂e-MeOHEconomics
01
Wind climateWeibull screening model
S04 · S10
c = v̄ / Γ(1 + 1/k)

The thesis mean wind 8.63 m/s at hub height and shape factor k = 2.2 are preserved as an academic baseline. The production version should ingest hourly ERA5 time series and quantify interannual variability.

Academic baselineUpgrade: ERA5 hourly
02
Wind-to-powerIEA 15 MW reference turbine
S01
E = N · Prated · 8760 · CF · A

The browser numerically integrates a transparent piecewise screening power curve between the IEA turbine cut-in, rated and cut-out speeds. It is intentionally not presented as OpenFAST or aeroelastic simulation.

Primary referenceDerived result
03
StoichiometryMass balance
S03
CO₂ + 3H₂ → CH₃OH + H₂O

Molar masses imply approximately 188.75 kg H₂/t MeOH and 1.374 t CO₂/t MeOH. The software derives these ratios rather than hard-coding a production yield.

ChemistryDeterministic
04
Process energyElectricity-limited production
S02 · S03 · S09
Itotal = (IPEM + IDAC + Isynth + Iwater) / (1 − fBoP)

PEM intensity is editable and benchmarked to DOE targets. DAC, synthesis, water treatment and balance-of-plant are screening assumptions with higher uncertainty.

PEM sourcedOther intensities: scenario
05
ProductionEnergy conservation
Audit
MeOH = Ewind / Itotal

This single equation is the critical scientific correction. It prevents the digital twin from claiming a methanol output that exceeds the electrical energy physically available.

Conservation lawHard constraint
06
EconomicsCOD-normalized DCF
S08 + scenario
NPV = −CAPEXnet + Σ CFt/(1+WACC)t

CAPEX, OPEX, price, grant and WACC are explicit scenario controls. Production degrades 0.5%/y and a 3% gross-CAPEX decommissioning allowance is charged in the terminal year.

Scenario modelNot investment advice
07
Break-even solverDecision support
NUMERIC
Find x such that NPV(x) = 0

Robust bisection solves the methanol price, maximum CAPEX, minimum grant, minimum wind resource and maximum WACC required to make the current scenario reach NPV = 0. This is more decision-useful than a single headline IRR.

Numerical solverSame equations as scenario engine
DESIGN DECISION LOG

Rationale, alternatives and trade-offs

AUDITABLE
MODEL BOUNDARY

What must happen before FEED

ERA5 multi-year hourly resourceEMODnet bathymetry/GISPOEM official intersectionHydrodynamics / RAOsMooring dynamicsStructural / fatigue analysisVendor process guaranteesHAZID / HAZOP / hazardous areasClass & statutory basisEnvironmental assessment
09 · EVIDENCE & GOVERNANCE

A source register instead of invisible assumptions.

Each key claim is linked to a technical, government, agency or academic source. Where the evidence does not support a number, MethaNor labels it as a scenario assumption rather than inventing precision.

EVIDENCE HIERARCHY

How to read the model

Primary / officialNREL, DOE, ERA5, EMODnet, MITECO, Puertos del Estado, IEA, IRENA

Academic baselineOriginal thesis values, re-audited before reuse

Scenario assumptionEditable commercial / project-planning input

Rule: no source class is silently upgraded. A scenario value remains a scenario value even if the UI looks precise.
EVIDENCE REGISTRY

Source → variable → module

10 · PROJECT ORIGIN

From thesis hypothesis to auditable engineering software.

MethaNor does not replace or rewrite the academic thesis. It treats the thesis as the concept origin, preserves traceable design baselines, exposes what was uncertain and corrects what fails a physical audit.

ACADEMIC ORIGIN · 2026

Conceptual multidisciplinary design and techno-economic feasibility of a 15 MW semisubmersible P2X platform for e-methanol in the Cantabrian Sea.

BSc Marine Engineering · Universidad de Cantabria · Aarón Expósito Monar

S10
01Original concept

15 MW floating wind + PEM + DAC + e-methanol on a semisubmersible platform.

02Independent re-audit

Energy conservation, stoichiometry, source provenance and financial logic checked explicitly.

03Scientific correction

The 51,058 t/y headline is separated from a single 15 MW unit and moved to a multi-unit hub architecture.

04Digital twin

Inputs become editable, results reproducible, evidence tagged and break-even conditions solvable.

PRESERVED

What remains from the thesis

  • 15 MW semisubmersible design unit
  • Cantabrian Sea concept and reference location
  • 8.63 m/s mean-wind baseline and Weibull k = 2.2
  • 24,000 t displacement, 22 m draft, 24.5 m air gap, GMeff 3.13 m
  • PEM + DAC + synthesis architecture
  • 25-year economic screening concept
CHANGED

What MethaNor improves

  • Energy-conservation constraint enforced
  • 15 MW unit separated from 150 MW hub
  • Every key input given an evidence class
  • Native methodology and origin pages replace raw Markdown links
  • Interactive project, O&M and financial scenario model
  • Break-even solvers replace one-number viability claims
NOT CLAIMED

What is still outside scope

  • No bankable energy yield assessment
  • No class-approved naval design
  • No vendor-quoted electrolyzer/DAC package
  • No final GIS permitting conclusion
  • No CFD/FEA/RAO/fatigue validation
  • No investment recommendation
THE KEY CORRECTION

Why 51 kt/y cannot come from one 15 MW source

Absolute electrical ceiling15 MW × 8,760 h = 131.4 GWh/y
PEM-only MeOH ceiling
Full-process ceiling
Thesis headline51,058 t/y

Even at 100% capacity factor and zero downtime, the original headline exceeds the electricity available once hydrogen demand is respected. MethaNor fixes the architecture rather than hiding the inconsistency.

BUILT BY AARÓN EXPÓSITO MONAR

Marine engineering, industrial data and decision-support software.

MethaNor is an independent software evolution of my 2026 Marine Engineering thesis at Universidad de Cantabria. It is deliberately positioned as conceptual engineering software: transparent enough to audit, visual enough to communicate, and explicit about the work still required before professional engineering use.

Python reference engineVanilla JS digital twinScientific auditTechno-economicsOffshore P2XGitHub CI